9/12 Washington DC Tea Party Rally – Crowd Estimation

September 22, 2009 at 9:36 pm (9/12, Crowd Estimation, Protest, Rally, Tea Party, Washington DC)

Revision (4)
Max Total Estimation: 133,000
Min Total Estimation: 124,000

For the past week or so, there have been many speculative assumptions with regard to the number of people who attended the Tea Party rally in Washington on 9/12. And just as many as there were participants, there are unsubstantiated figures that are finding their way into every drollery conversation on this subject matter — hence a volition for creation of this very post. First and foremost allow me to clarify that the intention of this entry is not to reprobate nor to relish admiration for the event or its participants. And I will make sure the comments adhere to orderly civil discourse on the subject matter which is the size estimation of crowd and “nothing else.” We can all find other posts — even on this oft-abandoned blog — to berate and censure each other. Nonetheless, this is NOT one of them. Let me reiterate this again, I don’t care if you are a moonbat leftist or a wingnut rightist; that does not concern me nor should you bring your ideological zeal on this particular post, period.

In theory, a methodology employed for crowed estimation is exceedingly simple: review as many pictures and clips of the event, survey the boundaries in areas where the crowd congregated, examine the density of the attendees in certain range, calculate the area of each segment (in sqft) and finally used the aforementioned data to determine the max and min of people in each block and total the tally at the end. This is easier said than done because of the fact such projection is time-variant. At best, you always wish to take a snapshot of the entire crowd at a given time — hopefully at the most populated moment. Unfortunately, such contingency is not realized when there is no aerial photo at a proper juncture when the area is at its highest population density. So the best possible structural examination I could come up with was to attribute crowd density to each block and run the appropriate calculation base on a following formula:

Σ(Fraction of Crowd with Certain Density) × (Total Area of a Block)/(Density Calculated Based on Square Footage per Person)

The “fraction of crowd with certain density” and “Density Calculated Based on Square Footage per Person” are determined by an overall assessment of photos at the most crowded moment while taking into the account the timing status of other sections with various densities. That is, if two segments of a block, “a” and “b“, at time “t” have crowd density of “d1” and “d2,” respectively, but at time “t1” have crowd density of “d3” and “d4” and d1 < d3, d2 > d4, appropriate considerations are credited in selection for the smallest discrepancy among the recorded densities.

For instance if s < d1 – d2 > 0 (a sign that at time slot t, density of certain segment was greater than a density of that same section at later time, t1, but not bigger than a number, s, which represents a small change) but b < d2 – d4 < 0 (where |b| represents a greater absolute difference among the densities at times t and t1), then the disparity between the density of certain area at various eons becomes self evident. For the sake of fairness, I decided to take the largest density of “a” region with the “least time variant” parameter. That is to say, if the change in the highest density — or even magnitude of a region with certain density (fraction) — is the least altered in a time slot “with respect” to other regions’ density-time fluctuation, then that particular density and the area it represents is chosen.

[???] What does all this concocted technical jargon even mean you may ask? Let me put it in simple words (read: don’t get your hopes high), the best possible areal density evaluation for “a” well defined enclosure is intrinsically interdependent of all the other densities belonging to other mutually exclusive parts (I know, I failed to simplify). We cannot take the crowdedness of one area at time x and have it recorded while using a crowd density of other regions at time y when a) x and y have a large differential gap b) the density of blocks independently varies dramatically from time x to time y ^[1].

This is crucial when the images and clips are reviewed and their per unit volume discrepancies at different time continuance becomes apparent. It’s like placing 10 people in a first room of a 5-bedroom house and present them to a visitor, then take them to the following remaining rooms, one by one, and at the end, pretend that there are 50 people living in the house with 10 occupants in each room! We simply moved the same group of people around, a sort of rearrangement of units. Same dilemma persists in this case; we can’t simply examine a photo taken at certain time frame, record an evaluated density, move on to the next still which was taken 3 hours later at some location across the field and mark its density and have it used in calculations. Therefore, the ultimate goal is to have a “snapshot” of all the blocks at the vertex of their highest concentrated compactness when the density for all parts differentiates the least in a defined time period — a multi-dimensional matrix of equations with the factorial degree of complexity ^[1].

Which brings us to the dreaded moment of truth: yes! Ultimately, the main domain for our calculation — density — comes down to one’s “feeling,” albeit the best educated one by analyzing, assessing, and reassessing countless of still imagery and videos and deducing the best possible density for all the blocks. I don’t want to be a bearer of bad news here but the only true way to quantify the figures is to have a live satellite beaming down its lens and having it take snap shots of high resolution photos at short intervals, then have a software program perform a complex array of head count and output a comparatively selected maximum number (good luck locating aunt Sally under a 100-year-old oak tree though) ^[1].

The biggest misconception arises when the reader assumes that since at time y, certain regions had a much higher density than the earlier times, we must assign a higher density accordingly — that’s a faulty presumption. The reason is, as it has been discussed, we are looking for the snapshot of all the blocks at their apical of density “relative” to every other block. So evaluating a density of block “a” at time y might require readjusting all other block’s crowdedness with respect to time frame y as well which could decrease the density for one or more of the regions and result in inaccurate reading ^[2].

So when did the rally have the largest number of attendees with the highest density of each block relative to all other areas? Well, according to my chronological examination of thousands of stills and videos, I would put the time frame somewhere around 12:30 PM and 1:30 PM. Also note that the speakers began their scheduled program at 1:00 PM ^[5].

The “total area of a block” is self explanatory however, it should also be mentioned that due to irregular shape of each block, the calculation of areas was lax and somewhat generous. The map used for this task is taken from Google Map, Washington D.C.-Capitol Hill, in 100ft (50m) echelon (you can verify it by comparing the two in case you are skeptical of diffraction grating offered here). The per person square footage used in calculations are as following:

• Extremely Dense: 1.5 × 1.75 ~ 2.5 sqft, after some consideration, it was brought to my attention that 2.5 sqft was indeed a prevailing density for certain enclaves. this might be a contentious figure due to the fact that a regular person, when standing still with arms placed on his side, would take up 3+ ft width-wise and almost 2.5 ft from front to back. However, in very densely packed events (e.g. front rows of concerts), this measurement is in parallel with reality ^[5].
• Dense: 2 × 2.5 = 5 sqft, Some may suggest that taking large fraction of a block as too dense would skew and inflate the numbers unfairly therefore I should attribute them solely to small areas where people are literally embracing each other very tightly. That is true but for the sake of everyone’s elation, I have decided to plug in this density to a larger fraction of each region where crowdedness appears to be palpable. So basically it all comes down to how big a “fraction” or “frequency” of dense area is being considered which eventually plays a bigger role in hyping or lowering the numbers.

  Another point that shouldn’t be missed, and I am not trying to disparage or disrespect anyone, is that, from the photos, a certain percentage of the attendees were a bit on a larger side of scale. Again, I’m not trying to generalize or label anyone as being morbidly obese but rather pointing that such actuality should be noted for the sake of accuracy of measurement. Nevertheless, I have decided to forgo the scrutiny and lump everyone as being moderately “fit.”

• Moderately-Dense: 3 × 2.5 = 7.5 sqft, this is a more realistic scenario in which, even though people are not crawling on top of each other, manage to stand closely shoulder-to-shoulder by each other.
• Relaxed: 4 × 3 = 12 sqft
• Breather: 5 × 5 = 25 sqft
• Arm-Length: 7 × 5 = 35 sqft, a person can extend his arm freely without physically striking people around him.
• Dispersed: 8 × 5 = 40 sqft, this density is extremely close to the previous one and merely used to satisfy certain visual discrepancies encountered in the images.
• Happy-Camper: 10 × 6 = 60 sqft

Some suggested to use the marching order to estimate the numbers. To do that, first we have to calculate the area covered from 14th St all the way down to Pennsylvania Ave. and Capitol Hill, area in which each demonstrator environs and make a division, and finally divide them up to tally the number of participants. If the width the Pennsylvania Ave is taken as 100ft and length of the street as more than a mile (i.e. 5500 ft), then the area of that stretch is roughly 550,000 sqft. Assuming each protester takes up around 8-12 sqft while “marching,” then one can speculate that around 50,000 to 70,000 attended the rally. This method does not deliberate on the speed in which the protesters are moving (i.e. 3-5 mph!) and how many could possibly squeeze out of each end of the rally (i.e. 14th and 3rd St.) which could add another 20,000 to the total. I find this particular arrangement unreliable and rather estimate the crowd when everybody is stationary.

Below you can find a map attached to this post where it has been subdivided into 13 areas/blocks (click on the image to access the larger resolution 1305 × 1253, 780 KB). For each block, I will first show the area’s calculation for the colored shape, then proceed to project the max and min of crowd using the formula discussed above, and finally a list of pertinent photos and clips that have been utilized to determine the parameters for the calculation. Moreover, the “majority” of the figures have been rounded “up” except when a calculated number is too close to the lower bound (i.e. 4396 becomes 4500 and 1016 becomes 1000) — of course for larger figures, rounding “up” could mean an increase of 500+ or even 4-digit surge. The direction of compass used to reference blocks and areas in the following section is not of Google Map’s but rather the “northern” point of reference was chosen to be the Capitol Hill. So if one is facing the Capitol Hill, the right hand side becomes east and the left hand side becomes west (in reality this corresponds to north and south in Google Map, respectively).

Another important pointer that I must share is that certain individuals (and I’m pretty sure there are a lot of you out there) who sophomorically might look at a picture and suggest that certain parameters (e.g. density) should be reconsidered with higher degree. Such misinterpretation of an image stems from an optical density illusion (a term borrowed from one of the commentors, cluebattingcage; allow me to elaborate). Such false apparition occurs when eyes view the object — crowd in this case — from a lowered angle which might give a false perception to the fact that there are more of that object than really is. If a viewer take on a higher position, this illusion of numbers (or density) diminishes and ultimately, in birds-eye-view (i.e. satellite images or a photo from a chopper) would allow for better density determination. So keep this in mind as you browse the photos or parse the video clips.

Finally, when I pulled all the germane photos, I also recorded the “time of capture” for each image through image properties (i.e. EXIF data). Reviewing the timestamps reveals that these data are unreliable because not all cameras are synced and many have erroneous configurations. Notwithstanding, I included them after each hyperlink and noted the ones with inaccurate date/time. In many references I use the term “Reflecting Pool” in substitution of “Capitol Reflecting Pool” as opposed to “Lincoln Memorial’s Reflecting Pool.” You can view the original one and Rev. 1 here if you wish to compare progressive readjustment.

A map below is a color coded density of the entire rally. Each colored region represents a boundary in which the crowd had the attributed density, for instance, a blue segment shows that the people located in that area had a 7.5 sqft/person density. You can find legend for color-density key-value below ^[4]:

• 2.5 sqft = Olive Drab ^[5]
• 5 sqft = Red
• 7.5 sqft = Blue
• 12 sqft = Green
• 25 sqft = Yellow
• 35 sqft = Orchid
• 40 sqft = Cyan
• 60 sqft = Violet Red
• No Density = White
• Unknown Density or inapplicable = Black

Every picture, still, or clip is also color coded with one or more ticks (“»“) which indicates what set of density was extrapolated from the resource. Note that certain images may depict multiple blocks but the tick merely represents the area in which it is being examined under. For instance, if a still shows block x and y where the density in block x is a and the density in block y is b, and the resource is being presented under block y, then density “b” is what we are interested in, not “a” which belongs to area x. A resource can contain multiple densities therefore one or more colors assign to it ^[4]. You can find Rev. 1 of density map and Rev. 2 of density map here. Also, I have included the PSD (photoshop) version of density map (~10 MB). Right click on the link and select “Save as” or “Save link as” and download it as “.ppt” and rename the extension to “.psd” because WordPress is picking as to what file format one can upload to their servers ^[5].

Remember, this is NOT about your bruised ego so keep your mind free of bias and try not to smash the monitor if you “feel” a certain number is too high or too low.

1. Eastern Lawn
2. Garfield Circle
3. Maryland Ave. Parking Lot
4. Podium and the Buffer Zone
5. Front Lawn
6. East Capitol Circle and Grant Memorial
7. Western Lawn
8. Peace Circle and Constitution Ave.
9. Pennsylvania Ave. Parking Lot
10. Reflecting Pool Margin
11. Reflecting Pool Perimeter
12. 3rd St.
13. 3rd St. and Constitution Ave.

(1) Eastern Lawn

This is an area covered from a line close to the eastern wing of the Capitol Hill building, limited by South Capitol Circle in the south (or lower boundary) and in the north (upper boundary) by the pathway that is the extension of line going through Garfield Circle and Maryland Ave. parking lot all the way to the Capitol Hill steps.

Rev. 3

1/6 × 113000/2.5 ~ 7,500
1/6 × 113000/5 ~ 3,800
1/6 × 113000/7.5 ~ 2,500
1/3 × 113000/12 ~ 3,150
1/6 × 113000/25 ~ 750

Max total ~ 17,700
Min total ~ 17,700

Rev. 2 (Block 1 density map, Rev. 2)
3.1 × 5 – [(3.5 × 2)/2] – [(1 × 0.5)/2] – [(0.5 × 1)/2] – [(0.5 × 0.75)/2] = 15.5 – 3.5 – 0.25 – 0.25 – 0.19 ~ 11.3 × 100² ~ 113,000 sqft

2/5 × 113000/5 ~ 9,100
1.5/15 × 113000/7.5 ~ 1,500
1/5 × 113000/12 ~ 1,900
1.5/5 × 113000/25 ~ 1,400

Max total ~ 14,000

1/3 × 113000/5 ~ 7,500
1/9 × 113000/7.5 ~ 1,700
2/9 × 113000/12 ~ 2,100
1/3 × 113000/25 ~ 1,500

Min total ~ 12,800

Rev. 1
3.1 × 5 – [(3.5 × 2)/2] – [(1 × 0.5)/2] – [(0.5 × 1)/2] – [(0.5 × 0.75)/2] = 15.5 – 3.5 – 0.25 – 0.25 – 0.19 ~ 11.3 × 100² ~ 113,000 sqft

3/5 × 113000/5 ~ 13,600
1/5 × 113000/7.5 ~ 3,000
1/5 × 113000/12 ~ 1,900

Max total ~ 18,500

1/2 × 113000/5 ~ 11,300
3/10 × 113000/12 ~ 2,900
2/10 × 113000/25 ~ 900

Min total ~ 15,100

Original
4.75 × 4 – [(3.3 × 0.8)/2] – [(0.8 × 2)/2] – [(4 × 1.3)/2] = 19 – 1.32 – 0.8 – 2.6 = 14.3 × 100² ~ 143,000 sqft

3/4 × 143000/5 ~ 21,500
1/8 × 143000/12 ~ 1,500
1/8 × 143000/25 ~ 720

Max total ~ 24,000

3/5 × 143000/5 ~ 17,200
1/5 × 143000/12 ~ 2,400
1/5 × 143000/25 ~ 2,000

Min total ~ 21,600

» The East lawn of the Capitol, closer to South Capital Circle and the 1st St SW, an outer passageway, facing the US Botanic Garden observatories – Rayburn building in the background (September 12, 2009 at 1.01pm EDT)

» East of the Capitol Hill taken close to the Independence Ave. — note that the crowd is merely extended to the outer passageway of the east lawn. Even though it appears that people are packed together, it doesn’t make it so because the picture was taken from far away which creates such illusion therefore the density cannot be extrapolate via this image (September 12, 2009 at 12.04pm EDT)

» Facing the steps from the East lawn of Capitol Hill, close to the eastern wing of the building. If the timestamps created by the camera is accurate, it’ll explain the scarcity of crowd (September 12, 2009 at 2.59pm EDT)

» » Taken from the eastern lawn’s closest walkway to the building facing the line passing through an extension of Maryland Ave SW and Garfield Circle — due to later on in the evening, the lawn does not look fully populated (September 12, 2009 at 2.59pm EDT)

» Close to South Capitol Circle and the 1st St. on the eastern lawn – not fully populated (September 12, 2009 at 2.46pm EDT)

» » Eastern lawn of Capitol Hill — the deepest accented columns on the eastern part of the Capitol building coincides with the high density segment of block (1) (September 12, 2009 at 2.46pm EDT)

» » The pathway on the right is the one that goes from South Capitol Circle to the east wing of the Capitol Hill building — a high[er] density appears to begin from the middle of the Capitol Hill building’s eastern chamber (September 12, 2009 at 2.53pm EDT)

» » » Taken in a proximity of steps and east wing of the Capitol building shooting through Grand Memorial all the way to the 3rd St.. Doesn’t say much about this particular block though (September 12, 2009 at 2.02pm EDT)

» » On the east lawn close to the Garfield Circle facing the dome. If the timestamps is correct, then a moderately heavier density segment reaches a parallel line to the eastern chamber. What is certain is the 12+ sqft density can be applied to the people closer to the camera (September 12, 2009 at 12.01pm EDT)

» Eastern lawn close to the east wing of the Capitol building — people leaning on the fence (September 12, 2009 at 12.56pm CDT)

» Eastern lawn close to the Capitol steps and podium — the timestamps and the crowd compactness don’t match (September 12, 2009 at 12.55pm CDT)

» » On the eastern lawn close to the building facing toward South Capitol Circle, Garfield Circle and the US Botanic Garden — several points. Observing closely to the left of the photo, it appears that the 1st St. near the Independence Ave. is very much crowded but only to the line drawn parallel to the facade of the US Botanic Garden. Second, all the to the right and behind the trees, it looks like the back of Maryland Ave. parking lot is equally congested with people although it’s hard to make up the density (September 12, 2009 at 12.55pm CDT)

» » Facing the US Botanic Garden and South Capitol Circle more to the back segment of the eastern lawn — crowd closer to the camera provide a better understanding of density distribution then rows of planted people on a horizontal space (September 12, 2009 at 12.54pm CDT)

» » » » » Off of Capitol steps facing the Garfield Circle — notice the back of the eastern lawn closer to Independence Ave. and 1st St are empty that’s due to the time lapse which gears toward the end of the rally. In other word, not the best photo to judge the density (September 12, 2009 at 3.31am EDT)

» » » Facing the crowd on the eastern lawn all the way to the 1st St. — very difficult to guesstimate the crowd density as the distance is just way too up (September 11, 2009 at 9.09pm PDT)

» » crowd close to the Garfield Circle inclined toward the eastern lawn (September 12, 2009 at 2.37pm PDT)

» » » A footage from the terrace area focusing on eastern lawn at 3:40 — again, due to the distance, it’s very difficult to estimate the densities at various parts. However, you can see the eastern lawn is almost fully populated (inside the “outer” pathway)

» » » 0:36 – Eastern lawn (earlier into the program, the populated area appears more dense) — once again, since the resolution is low and the angle does not provide a better understanding of crowdedness, we cannot derive at a conclusive density

» » 1:55 – back of the Eastern lawn where crowd are more dispersed. Hard to determine at what juncture the crowd density jumps up but examining the position of building to the crowd, we can extrapolate the shot was taken at around center of the eastern lawn but closer to the East Capitol Circle

» » A sporadic video of eastern lawn at 7:52 closer to the East Capitol Circle — a crowd is much more dispersed at the back of the lawn but probably was taken was when the rally was winding down.

» » A video taken on the eastern lawn at 2:23 – a lot of folding chairs and seated people.
» 2:58 – reveals how far and dispersed the crowd had moved away on the eastern lawn.
» 3:31/3:47 – closer to the eastern wing of the Capitol building.
» And finally, at 3:59 you could see the pathway which marks the eastern boundary of the rally (no one is visible beyond this line as it has been marked on the map). 4:10 – shows an empty lot between the demonstrators and eastern wing of the Capitol Hill building.
» » 5:05 – the edge of the eastern lawn closest to the Capitol steps.
» 6:10 – front rows, notice the density.

» » » A video taken on the lower Capitol steps looking at the east lawn (0:42) — start of the program, height of the rally although the camera is a bit shaky and certainly does not provide a much needed resolution and closeness for density determination

» » » A crowd close to the edge of the eastern lawn facing the podium (September 12, 2009 at 2.41pm EDT)

» Taken off of the edge of the Garfield Circle and 1st St. facing the eastern lawn — I cannot verify the accuracy of the timestamps however this photo is a damning evidence to the extension of the crowd all the way to the “at least” slightly beyond the “outer” passageway of the eastern lawn and possibly to the 1st St. even though the density does not seem to be heavy (September 12, 2009 at 11.18am EDT)

» » At the back of the eastern lawn taken on the outer passage way (September 12, 2009 at 10.39am PDT )

» » » On the front lawn between the center and eastern side of the block (September 12, 2009 at 1.20pm EDT)

(2) Garfield Circle

An area surrounding the Garfield Circle and partial representation of 1st St. in addition to the eastern and front lawn area.

Rev. 4

1/9 × 82000/2.5 ~ 3,650
1/9 × 82000/5 ~ 1,800
1/9 × 82000/7.5 ~ 1,200
3.5/9 × 82000/12 ~ 2,700
2.5/9 × 82000/25 ~ 900

Max total ~ 10,250

1/9 × 82000/2.5 ~ 3,650
1/9 × 82000/5 ~ 1,800
1/9 × 82000/7.5 ~ 1,200
3/9 × 82000/12 ~ 2,300
3/9 × 82000/25 ~ 1,100

Min total ~ 10,000

Rev. 3 (Block 2 density map, Rev. 3)

1/6 × 82000/2.5 ~ 5,450
1/6 × 82000/5 ~ 2,700
1/6 × 82000/7.5 ~ 1,800
1.3/6 × 82000/12 ~ 1,500
1.7/6 × 82000/25 ~ 900

Max total ~ 12,400

0.8/6 × 82000/2.5 ~ 4,400
1/6 × 82000/5 ~ 2,700
0.8/6 × 82000/7.5 ~ 1,500
1.2/6 × 82000/12 ~ 1,400
2.2/6 × 82000/25 ~ 1,200

Min total ~ 11,200

Rev. 2 (Block 2 density map, Rev. 2)
3.1415 × [1.5² + 0.6²] = 8.2 × 100² ~ 82,000 sqft

1/3 × 82000/5 ~ 5,500
1/5 × 82000/7.5 ~ 2,200
1/5 × 82000/12 ~ 1,400
4/15 × 82000/25 ~ 900

Max total ~ 10,000

1/3 × 82000/5 ~ 5,500
2/15 × 82000/7.5 ~ 1,500
3/15 × 82000/12 ~ 1,400
1/3 × 82000/25 ~ 1,100

Min total ~ 9,500

3.1415 × [1.5² + 0.5²] = 7.9 × 100² ~ 79,000 sqft

Rev. 1
1/3 × 79000/7.5 ~ 3,500
4/9 × 79000/12 ~ 3,000
2/9 × 79000/25 ~ 700

Max total ~ 7,200

2/5 × 79000/7.5 ~ 4,200
1/5 × 79000/12 ~ 1,300
2/5 × 79000/25 ~ 1,300

Min total ~ 6,800

Original
2/3 × 79000/5 ~ 10,500
2/9 × 79000/7.5 ~ 2,400
1/9 × 79000/12 ~ 700

Max total ~ 13,600

2/5 × 79000/5 ~ 6,300
2/5 × 79000/7.5 ~ 4,200
1/5 × 79000/25 ~ 600

Min total ~ 11,100

» Close to the Garfield Circle — if the timestamps is correct, this one was taken later in the rally (September 12, 2009 at 2.40pm EDT)

» Facing the Garfield Circle and US Botanic Garden — note the circle is populated but hard to tell how far back on the Maryland Ave. parking lot the attendees go (September 12, 2009 at 2.43pm PDT)

» » Crowd to the west of the Garfield Circle on the East Capitol Circle — the resolution is too low to make up the density but superficially one can guess that at this juncture, it was probably more crowded (September 13, 2009 at 2.38am CDT )

» Facing the US Botanic Garden and Garfield Circle from the eastern edge of the circle (September 12, 2009 at 10.46pm EDT )

» » Crowd on the edge of the Garfield Circle facing the Maryland Ave. parking lot — although people sitting on the short wall are blocking most of the view of the Circle, you still can observe the crowdedness of the area (September 12, 2009 at 11.26am PDT )

» View from the back of the front lawn facing the Garfield Circle although not much exposure of the circle. Crowd closer to the camera is a good example of optical density illusion (September 11, 2009 at 8.20pm PDT )

» A video (0:20) on the edge of the Garfield Circle. Hard to say how far the crowd goes back but evidently, the crowd on the eastern edge of the Reflecting Pool is very much dense if not as dense as the rows on the front lawn

» » A short snippet clip of the Crowd on the edge of the Garfield Circle at 2:57 facing the Maryland Ave. parking lot shows a lower density than certain photos (2:15pm ET)

» Although situated outside of Garfield Circle but the photo marks the block’s boundaries — people walking away from the demonstration toward the US Botanic Garden (September 12, 2009 at 11.37am PDT )

» Taken from the Garfield Circle facing right down the Maryland Ave. parking lot — either the timestamps is inaccurate or this is indeed the early arrivals of march (September 12, 2009 at 11.18am EDT)

» » » » A picture on the edge of Garfield Circle and first block facing the Grant Memorial — East Capitol Circle portion is crowded as usual (September 12, 2009 at 11.18am EDT)

(3) Maryland Ave. Parking Lot

An area east of the Reflecting Pool and west of the US Botanic Garden but not all the way stretched to the 3rd St because I haven’t seen a photo vouching for such claim.

Rev. 2
2.3 × 0.75 + 2 × 1/6 = 1.73 + 0.32 ~ 2 × 100² ~ 20,000 sqft

2/5 × 20000/12 ~ 700
1.5/5 × 20000/25 ~ 250*
1.5/5 × 20000/35 ~ 200

Max total ~ 1,150

1/3 × 20000/12 ~ 550
1/3 × 20000/25 ~ 300
1/3 × 20000/35 ~ 200

Min total ~ 1,050

Rev. 1
2.3 × 0.75 + 2 × 1/6 = 1.73 + 0.32 ~ 2 × 100² ~ 20,000 sqft

2/5 × 20000/7.5 ~ 1,100
1/5 × 20000/12 ~ 350
2/5 × 20000/35 ~ 250

Max total ~ 1,700

2/5 × 20000/7.5 ~ 1,100
3/5 × 20000/35 ~ 350

Min total ~ 1,450

Original
3.4 × 5/6 = 2.83 × 100² ~ 28,300 sqft

1/2 × 28300/7.5 ~ 1,900
1/4 × 28300/12 ~ 600
1/4 × 28300/25 ~ 300

Max total ~ 2,800

2/5 × 28300/12 ~ 950
1/5 × 28300/25 ~ 250
2/5 × 28300/35 ~ 350

Min total ~ 1,600

» » To the right, Maryland parking space and eastern edge of the Reflecting Pool – at the moment of capture of this particular picture, the crowd was more dispersed. However, at earlier time, the area closer to the Garfield Circle must have been more crowded (August 12, 2009 at 12.45pm PDT )

» You can see on the left hand side of the photo that the back of the Maryland Ave. is literally empty — the associated text embedded in the image points to the fact that the time of capture was around 1:30 PM ET but not confirmed

» An interviewer strolls around Garfield Circle with Maryland Ave. visible in the background at 8:13 parallel to the Botanic Garden entrance. The lot is pretty much empty which signals the end of the rally as the Circle was indeed pretty much populated earlier on (time of capture could not be obtained)

» » Although not entirely related to this block but on the right side, behind the trees, you can see the back of the Maryland Ave. parking lot — the parking lot is equally congested with people although it’s hard to make up the density (September 12, 2009 at 12.55pm CDT)

(4) Podium and the Buffer Zone

I probably shouldn’t have dedicated any numbers to this block because the area was merely designated for organizers and affiliates, media crews, and guests/speakers. However, I saw a few lines of workers in some photos so I decided to include them in my final tally (they turned out to be Coal Industry Workers (0:20) brought to the protest as Cap & Trade was one of the main umbrage of the rally). Note that juxtaposing the images taken from this area with the one highlighted on my map, it becomes apparent that the boundaries represent a smaller region than of reality of the area but I’m willing to forgo of such deviation. Note that I’m marking all the related photos and clips as “unknown density” because there is no point assessing crowd in this particular block.

Rev. 2
Only the area was recalculated but the crowd estimate is not needed for this particular block

(2.3 + 2) × 1 × 1/2 = 2.1 × 100² ~ 21,000 sqft

Original
(2.3 + 2) × 5/6 × 1/2 = 1.8 × 100² ~ 18,000 sqft

Max total ~ 500
Min total ~ 300

» East of podium (September 12, 2009 at 2.41am EDT )

» Podium, a buffer zone and the media setup (September 12, 2009 at 2.47am EDT )

» East of podium facing the front lawn (September 12, 2009 at 2.31am EDT )

» A closer view of the eastern side of the podium (September 12, 2009 at 2.16am EDT )

» Buffer zone and the media, facing the front and western lawn (September 12, 2009 at 2.16am EDT )

» View from the back of the stage facing the front lawn and the buffer zone (September 12, 2009 at 1.01am EDT )

» More view of the backstage (September 11, 2009 at 11.24pm EDT )

» A video of a decent 360 view of the buffer zone and the podium

» A snippet of this video depicts at what juncture the east lawn was delimited by the closest pathway running parallel to the Capitol building (2:53) — also note the density at various locations on the east lawn

» A close up capture of buffer zone close to the west lawn — spatially, it is larger than it is drawn on the map

(5) Front Lawn

This is by far the most crowded block and I attributed higher density to a larger portion of this block. At first glance, it might appear that the block must encompass a larger area but if you observe closely (consult the map), you’ll notice that the block has missing parts such as the two partially carved out circles in the lower edges and also the podium/buffer zone on the top. Moreover, juxtaposing the highlighted eastern and western lawns with the front lawn, such doubt should be immediately vanished.

Rev. 3
The front boundary of block (5) was altered to reflect a more accurate geometric size of the area (winged out on the edges where it meets the walkway stonewalls), hence a slight increase in dimension to 125,000 sqft.

1.1/5 × 125000/2.5 ~ 11,000*
1.9/5 × 125000/5 ~ 9,500
1.6/5 × 125000/7.5 ~ 5,300
0.4/5 × 125000/12 ~ 850

* Correction was made from 1.0 to 1.1 fractional and 10k to 11k population increase
Max total ~ 26,650

0.9/5 × 125000/2.5 ~ 9,000
1.8/5 × 125000/5 ~ 9,000
1.8/5 × 125000/7.5 ~ 6,000
0.5/5 × 125000/12 ~ 1,050

Min total ~ 25,050

Rev. 2 (Block 5 density map, Rev. 2)
After reviewing a number of stills taken from the buffer zone and specially the ones on the higher ground (i.e. Capitol steps), I concluded that the area of the front lawn is slightly smaller on the boundary aligned with the podium, therefore the recalculation was needed. And the reason for a slight increase despite a deduction of trivial area at the front row is that the prior to the latest recalculation, border boundaries on the left and right hadn’t been extended properly.

(2.5 + 4.3) × 2.1/2 + (4.3 + 5.4) × 1.3/2 – 2 × (1.1 × 1)/2 = 7.14 + 6.3 – 1.1 ~ 12.3 × 100² ~ 123,000 sqft

1/2 × 123000/5 ~ 12,300
2/5 × 123000/7.5 ~ 6,600
1/10 × 123000/12 ~ 1,000

Max total ~ 20,000

No Min calculation.

Min total ~ 20,000

Original
(2.3 + 4) × 2.5/2 + (4 + 5.1) × 1.1/2 – 2 × (1.1 × 1)/2 = 7.9 + 5 – 1.1 ~ 12 × 100² ~ 120,000 sqft

9/10 × 120000/5 ~ 21,600
1/10 × 120000/7.5 ~ 1,600

Max total ~ 24,000

4/5 × 120000/5 ~ 19,200
1/10 × 120000/7.5 ~ 1,600
1/10 × 120000/12 ~ 1,000

Min total ~ 21,800

» » Taken from the fountain area — notice the podium was erected on the lawn not the concrete courtyard. This image is a candidate for optical density illusion (September 12, 2009 at 3.34am EDT )

» » A better picture taken at the fountain facing the front lawn, National Mall and Washington Monument — notice the empty pockets of space intentionally left unpopulated so the crowd can see the speakers. I’m not going to use this picture to speculate on block 8’s crowdedness (September 12, 2009 at 3.33am EDT )

» » » An angled shot from the front lawn — again not a good picture to extrapolate density at the back of the block but you can see a more spaciously relaxed areas near the East Capitol Circle (September 12, 2009 at 3.32am EDT )

» » » Taken from the steps facing the front lawn and Peace Circle — notice the west segment of East Capitol Circle and Peace Circle are unpopulated (September 12, 2009 at 3.31am EDT )

» » » Taken from the front lawn and bushes north of Grant Memorial (September 12, 2009 at 12.06pm PDT)

» » An area on the front lawn adjacent to the Peace Circle (September 12, 2009 at 2.19pm EDT)

» » » Another “overall” scenic picture taken from the front lawn of the Capitol Hill, all the way to the outer margin of Reflecting Pool — hard to speculate the crowd density but one can certainly suggest that it fits 5/7.5 sqft/person (September 12, 2009 at 3.33am EDT )

» » » Clearly the buffer zone might look a bit larger than expected — note that there are crowd behind the trees on the right hand side which I referred to as a western border of the block (September 12, 2009 at 3.32am EDT )

» » » Crowd on the front rows near the podium facing to the eastern lawn — Coal Industry workers sitting on the lawn on the foreground (September 12, 2009 at 2.16am EDT )

» » Close to Garfield Circle — notice the spaces created for better viewership in this vicinity (September 12, 2009 at 2.44pm PDT)

» » » Taken from the front lawn facing the East Capitol Circle and Grant Memorial (half way on the front lawn and the podium) — notice that people are NOT crammed but rather there is a comfortable space placed among the crowd (September 12, 2009 at 1.41pm PDT)

» » » Facing the East lawn and US Botanic Garden (closer to the podium) but taken from the crowd on the front lawn (September 12, 2009 at 1.41pm PDT)

» » » Facing the dome (closer to the podium) (September 14, 2009 at 11.04am PDT )

» » » Good picture from the podium showing the front lawn all the way to the Grant Memorial statues. The front rows are densely packed (September 12, 2009 at 1.27pm PDT)

» Taken near the Garfield Circle and close to the eastern lawn facing the Capitol Hill — notice in previous pictures around this vicinity the density was a bit lower but as the area approaches a more open space, more people lined up to have a better view of the podium (September 13, 2009 at 2.17am CDT )

» » » A view from the front lawn and Grant Memorial facing the Capitol Hill a bit to the west — the compactness is hard to justify from this angle (September 12, 2009 at 2.32pm EDT)

» A view from the Grant Memorial facing the Capitol Hill slightly to to the east (September 12, 2009 at 2.32pm EDT)

» » » » Close to East Capitol Circle facing facing the front lawn crowd — notice big gaps on the right hand corner (September 12, 2009 at 1.57pm EDT)

» A view from the Grant Memorial statues facing the dome and front lawn crowd. Obviously, I’m not going to use this particular sill to justify any density as the resolution is too low (September 12, 2009 at 3.10pm PDT)

» » » » A wider angle snap of the crowd on the front lawn close to the Garfield Circle — notice holes among the crowd at this juncture (September 12, 2009 at 10.46pm EDT )

» » Back of the front lawn close to the East Capitol Circle — crowd is more dispersed but take a heed of the time (September 12, 2009 at 2.15pm PDT)

» » Close to the East Capitol Circle taken from the crowd on the front lawn slightly to the west — notice the gaps (September 12, 2009 at 2.06pm PDT)

» » » Taken from the west lawn of the crowd on the edge of the front lawn — speculating that this image was produced earlier in the program, the crowd was much more dense at time

» Crowd on the front law closer to the Garfield Circle all the way to the Grant Memorial (September 12, 2009 at 11.26am PDT)

» On the Grand Memorial steps facing the Capitol Hill not a good picture to assess density but overall feeling of the surrounding

» Taken close to East Capitol Circle facing to the eastern lawn — notice the space on the eastern lawn being completely empty. A female Police officer on the left leaning against a tree (September 12, 2009 at 12.05pm PDT)

» » » Taken from the Grant Memorial steps — not a right photo to estimate the “front lawn’s” density (September 12, 2009 at 10.26am CDT)

» » » Shot from the Grant Memorial steps facing the Capitol dome — the crowd on the front lawn are too far away for me to speculate on the density (September 12, 2009 at 12.53pm PDT)

» » Taken on the front lawn close to the Peace Circle — the density is dispersed (September 12, 2009 at 1.51pm PDT)

» » View from the terrace (top of the stairs) looking down on to the front lawn and Pennsylvania Ave. — notice a huge buffer zone gap on the right hand side of the podium which was corrected on newer colored maps (September 11, 2009 at 9.09pm PDT )

» » » Facing down the Maryland Ave. with eastern lawn and front lawn in the frame — good picture to determine the boundaries but not so much for density (September 11, 2009 at 9.09pm PDT )

» » » Another wide angle photo facing the front lawn and Reflecting pool (September 11, 2009 at 9.09pm PDT )

» » Shooting down the Pennsylvania Ave. and Peace Circle — from the western corner of the front lawn vantage point, crowd leaning against the buffer zone fences (September 11, 2009 at 8.20pm PDT )

» » View of the Garfield Circle and the front lawn — due to lowered angle of the shot, it is difficult to determine the density (September 11, 2009 at 8.20pm PDT )

» » Back of the front lawn close to the East Capitol Circle facing the Grant Memorial statues — more dispersed than usual so I’m assuming it was taken a bit into the program (September 12, 2009 at 12.33pm PDT)

» Facing the Grant Memorial and East Capitol Circle from the front lawn slightly to the west — as the two sections merge, the crowd density lowered (September 12, 2009 at 12.27pm PDT)

» » Front lawn captured at 3:36 — clip is too fuzzy to be any use for the density estimation but allows you to draw the boundaries

» » A higher vantage point video of the front lawn and Grant Memorial where crowd standing close to the East Capitol Circle — you can see that there is a lot of space among the crowd on the front lawn closer to the foreground

» » A video at 3:22 captures the vicinity — note that at this point, the rally was winding down so don’t assume the front lawn was as crowd-scarce as it was at its zenith

» » Another video from the edge of the Garfield Circle facing the podium (first few seconds) — time of capture cannot be determined but it depicts the vicinity as being crowded

» » A video taken at the end of the rally taken off the front lawn — the description puts the time at 2:52pm ET

» » » Taken in the middle of front lawn facing the Capitol dome — heed the density (September 12, 2009 at 11.04am EDT)

» Taken from the east side of the front lawn facing the East Capitol Circle — some people are using folding chairs not as dense as the front rows (September 12, 2009 at 10.54am EDT )

» » A video taken on the Capitol steps facing the front lawn at 0:32 — start of the program, height of the rally

» » Crowd on the front lawn (September 12, 2009 at 1.27am EDT )

» Taken almost in the middle of the front lawn at 6:35 onward — take a note on the density of crowd; a bit looser than other videos and pictures

» » » An 180 degree view of front lawn at 4:37 and 7:46 close to the Garfield Circle where it’s less densely packed.
» » At 8:07 you may view the compactness of the “front row” crowd; 5 sqft per person is justified

» Standing on the front lawn closer to the street — the density is lowered in the middle and beyond (September 12, 2009 at 1.00pm PDT)

» » Facing the East Capitol Circle, photo taken from the crowd on the western corner of the front lawn (September 12, 2009 at 1.00pm PDT)

» Crowd right in the middle of the front lawn — notice the crowd density closer to the camera (September 12, 2009 at 12.12pm PDT)

(6) East Capitol Circle and Grant Memorial

A block encompassing an area between the Reflecting Pool and the front lawn, bounded from Peace Circle and Garfield Circle on the west and the east, respectively. Note, as the rally progressed, an area starting at the Grand Memorial statues up to the East Capitol Circle became desolate, nonetheless, at the height of the rally, it was crowded. A small “white” half circle is an indication of door-wall placed between block 6 and 5; even though several of videos and photos shows the vicinity almost empty, I included it in the calculation because the increase is trivia however it’s marked on the color coded density map.

Rev. 4

1/7 × 72000/2.5 ~ 4,100
1/4 × 72000/5 ~ 3,600
1/4 × 72000/7.5 ~ 2,400
1/4 × 72000/12 ~ 1,500
3/28 × 72000/40 ~ 200

Max total ~ 11,800

1/7 × 72000/2.5 ~ 4,100
0.9/4 × 72000/5 ~ 3,200
1.1/4 × 72000/7.5 ~ 2,600
0.9/4 × 72000/12 ~ 1,350
3.7/28 × 72000/40 ~ 250

Min total ~ 11,500

Rev. 3 (Block 6 density map, Rev. 3)

1/5 × 72000/2.5 ~ 5,800
0.8/5 × 72000/5 ~ 2,300
1.2/5 × 72000/7.5 ~ 2,300
1.3/5 × 72000/12 ~ 1,600
0.7/5 × 72000/40 ~ 250

Max total ~ 12,250

1/6 × 72000/2.5 ~ 4,800
0.7/5 × 72000/5 ~ 2,000
1.3/5 × 72000/7.5 ~ 2,500
1.3/5 × 72000/12 ~ 1,500
5.2/30 × 72000/40 ~ 300

Min total ~ 11,100

Rev. 2 (Block 6 density map, Rev. 2)
(1 + 5/6) × 3 + (1.3 × 1.15)/2 + (1.5 × 1.15)/2 = 5.5 + 0.75 + 0.86 ~ 72,000 sqft

1/3 × 72000/5 ~ 4,800
1/3 × 72000/7.5 ~ 3,200
4/21 × 72000/12 ~ 1,200
1/7 × 72000/40 ~ 300

Max total ~ 9,500

1/3 × 72000/5 ~ 4,800
1/3 × 72000/7.5 ~ 3,200
2/15 × 72000/12 ~ 800
1/5 × 72000/40 ~ 360

Min total ~ 9,200

Rev. 1
(1 + 5/6) × 3 + (1.3 × 1.15)/2 + (1.5 × 1.15)/2 = 5.5 + 0.75 + 0.86 ~ 72,000 sqft

5/6 × 72000/5 ~ 12,000
1/6 × 72000/7.5 ~ 1,600

Max total ~ 13,600

4/5 × 72000/5 ~ 11,500
2/15 × 72000/7.5 ~ 1,300
1/15 × 72000/12 ~ 400

Min total ~ 13,200

Original
3 × 1.7 + 5/6 × 1.1 + (1.85 × 1.1)/2 = 5.1 + 1 + 1 = 7.1 × 100² ~ 71,000 sqft

4/5 × 71000/5 ~ 11,400
1/5 × 71000/7.5 ~ 2,000

Max total ~ 13,500

7/10 × 71000/5 ~ 10,000
2/7 × 71000/7.5 ~ 2,700
1/7 × 71000/12 ~ 850

Min total ~ 13,500

» Taken from the south of the Reflecting Pool, facing the Capitol — notice a gap between the pool and Grant Memorial statues and East Capitol Circle (September 12, 2009 at 2.49pm EDT)

» On the East Capitol Circle facing the dome (September 12, 2009 at 2.25pm EDT)

» shot of the statues on Grant Memorial — not many people captured on this still (September 12, 2009 at 11.51am EDT)

» Crowd on the East Capitol Circle and Grant statues (September 12, 2009 at 2.45pm PDT)

» West lawn close to the East Capitol Circle facing the Grant statues — the density has been diminished (September 12, 2009 at 2.37pm PDT)

» On the right hand side of the photo, you can see the eastern part of the East Capitol Circle (not to be confused with South Capitol Circle)

» A view taken from the Grant Memorial facing the Capitol Hill a bit to the West — a more challenging still to extrapolate the density for this block (September 12, 2009 at 2.32pm EDT)

» A view from the Grant Memorial facing the Capitol Hill a bit to the East (September 12, 2009 at 2.32pm EDT)

» » Facing the Capitol, you can see the crowd walking on the East Capitol Circle — an area between the Grant Memorial and the front lawn was used extensively for people to get across different part of the rally so the crowd density would be capricious by nature (September 12, 2009 at 2.26pm EDT)

» Facing the Grant Memorial on the East Capitol Circle right before the bushes — a great estimation of crowd density (September 12, 2009 at 1.55pm EDT)

» A view from the Grant Memorial statues — although the resolution does not permit to reach a conclusive result, it is necessary to note the crowdedness of this area (September 12, 2009 at 3.10pm PDT)

» Picture taken on the western side of the East Capitol Circle facing the Grant Memorial statues close to Peace Circle

» On the Grand Memorial steps facing the Capitol Hill — the density is more loose than the crowd behind the bushes for obvious visibility reason

» » » The crowd viewed from western side of the block 6 facing the Grant Memorial statues — as you can see, the crowd density is very high (September 12, 2009 at 11.05am PDT)

» » Taken from the Grant Memorial steps — the view is restricted by the head shots (September 12, 2009 at 10.26am CDT)

» Shot from the Grant Memorial steps facing the Capitol dome (September 12, 2009 at 12.53pm PDT)

» » A view from the top of the Grant Memorial statues facing the US Botanic Garden and Maryland Ave. parking lot — the crowd is dwindling in numbers at this point (September 14, 2009 at 11.45am PDT )

» Facing the Grant Memorial from the front law slightly to the west — good density (September 12, 2009 at 1.43pm PDT)

» » Facing the Grant Memorial and East Capitol Circle from the front lawn slightly to the west (September 12, 2009 at 12.27pm PDT)

» A video at 0:57 taken from the terrace of the Capitol Hill zooming at the Grant Memorial — definitely not suited for crowd density estimate but merely boundary marking

» » Captured at the Grant Memorial facing the Capitol Hill — not many people present on the Memorial steps, an area behind the bushes adjacent to the East Capitol Circle. It appears that at this particular time, the rally was dwindling down.

» » A video from the higher vantage point of the front lawn and Grant Memorial at 0:09 where crowd standing close to the East Capitol Circle. At 0:22 you notice a circular empty zone due to a stone door frame + bushes planted on the border of block 1 and 6

» A short capture of East Capitol Circle and Grant Memorial at 0:38 even though the camera is mounted too low, it illustrates a lower density than the front lawn

» A video taken on the East Capitol Circle at 1:18 – notice the crowd density and how many are mobile

» » » A very accurate estimation of crowd on East Capitol Circle with 180 degree view at 4:04 — early in the program and the area is not only wall to wall covered but the crowdedness appears to be dense

» » A view from the top of the Grant Memorial statues looking down on the East Capitol Circle — less dense compare to ECC for obvious visibility reason (September 12, 2009 at 1.05pm PDT)

» » Taken on atop one of the stone lions facing down on the East Capitol Circle — notice the crowd density at the bottom of the picture (September 12, 2009 at 1.21pm EDT)

» Another photo taken on Grant Memorial steps facing the Capitol doom — notice the crowd density at the bottom of the picture (September 12, 2009 at 12.31pm PDT)

» Picture taken of the Grant Memorial the Maryland Ave. parking lot — moderate density but not packed (September 12, 2009 at 1.24pm EDT)

(7) Western Lawn

An area bounded by the closest pathway to the western wing of the Capitol Hill in the north, South Capitol Circle in the West, Peace Circle in the south, and a passageway extension of Pennsylvania Ave. all the way to the Capitol stairs on the east.

Rev. 3

1/5 × 108000/2.5 ~ 8,600
0.9/5 × 108000/5 ~ 3,900
1.4/5 × 108000/7.5 ~ 4,000
1/5 × 108000/12 ~ 1,800
0.7/5 × 108000/25 ~ 500

Max total ~ 18,800

1/5 × 108000/2.5 ~ 8,600
0.8/5 × 108000/5 ~ 3,400
1.5/5 × 108000/7.5 ~ 4,300
1/5 × 108000/12 ~ 1,800
0.7/5 × 108000/25 ~ 500

Min total ~ 18,500

Rev. 2 (Block 7 density map, Rev. 2)
3 × 4.5 – [(4 × 1.2)/2] – [(0.5 × 0.3)/2] = 13.5 – 2.4 – 0.35 ~ 10.8 × 100² ~ 108,000 sqft

1/2 × 108000/5 ~ 10,800
1/3 × 108000/7.5 ~ 4,800
1/12 × 108000/12 ~ 750
1/12 × 108000/25 ~ 350

Max total ~ 16,700

2/5 × 108000/5 ~ 8,600
1.5/5 × 108000/7.5 ~ 4,300
0.75/5 × 108000/12 ~ 1,400
0.75/5 × 108000/25 ~ 650

Min total ~ 15,000

Rev. 1
3 × 4.5 – [(4 × 1.2)/2] – [(0.5 × 0.3)/2] = 13.5 – 2.4 – 0.35 ~ 10.8 × 100² ~ 108,000 sqft

3/5 × 108000/5 ~ 13,000
1/5 × 108000/12 ~ 1,800
1/5 × 108000/25 ~ 900

Max total ~ 15,700

1/2 × 108000/5 ~ 10,800
1/5 x 108000/12 ~ 1,800
3/10 × 108000/25 ~ 1,300

Min total ~ 14,000

Original
4.5 × 4.5 – (4.1 × 1.7)/2 – (4 × 1.5)/2 – (1 × 0.8)/2 = 18 – 3.5 – 2 – 0.4 = 12.1 × 100² ~ 121,000 sqft

3/4 × 121000/5 ~ 18,500
1/8 × 121000/7.5 ~ 2,000
1/8 × 121000/12 ~ 1,300

Max total ~ 22,000

3/5 × 121000/5 ~ 14,500
3/10 × 121000/12 ~ 3,000
1/10 × 121000/25 ~ 500

Min total ~ 18,000

» » All the way to back of the western lawn close to East Capitol Circle — given the relative position of the crowd to the Capitol Hill building, folks on the foreground are situated near the outer passageway (September 12, 2009 at 12.27pm EDT)

» Taken from a vicinity closer to the Capitol Hill building from the west lawn facing the Constitution Ave. (September 12, 2009 at 2.26pm PDT)

» » Another photo of the western lawn facing the Constitution Ave. but this time taken from an area closer to the passageway divider between this block and the front lawn (September 12, 2009 at 1.41pm PDT)

» » » » The western lawn near the East Capitol Circle facing the dome (September 12, 2009 at 2.15pm EDT)

» » Crowd on the west lawn, near the East Capitol Circle — notice the position of the spot where the picture was taken to the western chamber of the Capitol Hill building; a perpendicular line to the building would go through the middle of the building which incidentally, it is also a middle proximity of the western lawn therefore the extension of crowd you view all the way to the left is expected (September 12, 2009 at 2.14pm EDT)

» » Facing the Independence Ave. from the Western lawn close to the East Capitol Circle — hard to project the boundaries but the crowd density is decent (September 12, 2009 at 12.15pm PDT)

» » » » Taken from the fountain area in the belly of the Capitol steps facing the western lawn — notice that the crowd is not extended all the way to the “South” Capitol Circle (September 12, 2009 at 3.33am EDT )

» Taken close to the East Capitol Circle and Pennsylvania Ave. parking space — this picture was not used for density projection as it seems the crowd is on the move to situate itself on the western lawn (September 12, 2009 at 1.49pm EDT)

» » » Another wide angle, albeit far, picture of the west lawn — facing the 1st St. (September 11, 2009 at 9.09pm PDT )

» » » A video shows the west lawn at 0:46 close to the Capitol steps — empty area from the crowd to the Capitol building

» Crowd on the edge of the East Capitol Circle close to Peace Circle and 1st St. — after some contemplation, it was brought to my attention that the photo was taken while the crowd was being ushered to the various enclaves, in this particular case, to the west lawn so it’s not much of a still that I would like to utilize to assess certain parameters. Remember, we are looking for images that show stationary crowd, not mobile (September 12, 2009 at 2.46pm PDT)

» A video of the western lawn at 3:25 — the video resolution is too fuzzy to be used for projection

» » A video taken on the Capitol steps looking at the west lawn (0:22) — boundaries as expect, start of the program, height of the rally

» » Just like walking in the park. A man with the largest cojones strolls around on the west lawn with the largest “Public Option Now” banner he could hardly hold while being escorted by the crowd and eventually a dozen cops — at 0:35, you could somehow determine his position relative to the Capitol Hill west wing which is inside the “outer” passage way. If so, then the density of this segment of block (7) is more dispersed than I had assumed. However, I cannot determine at what point this video was captured

» A great view of the western lawn closer to the outer passage route at 3:12 — density is dispersed at the outer edge.
» » 3:37 delimits the western boundaries

» » » An up close photo of the front rows of attendees on the west lawn slightly near the podium — the density is high (September 13, 2009 at 5.57pm PDT )

» » Crowd on the west lawn facing the podium and the front lawn (September 12, 2009 at 2.46pm PDT )

» Another up close photo of the first rows rows of attendees on the west lawn (September 13, 2009 at 5.57pm PDT )

» In the trenches on the west lawn — not the most dense segment of front rows, time might be a factor (September 12, 2009 at 2.02pm PDT)

» Close to the fences on the west lawn facing to the front lawn — notice the gap among the crowd (September 12, 2009 at 12.16pm PDT)

(8) Peace Circle and Constitution Ave.

The reason the Peace Circle and East Capitol Circle are half way highlighted on the map is that at the height of rally, it had been barricaded by the police in order to provide emergency exit route, therefore it was only partially populated. The remaining area extends all the way to Constitution Ave. but I found little evidence to its crowdedness at the back. A black strip along side of the block portrays a row of portable potties installed in that location.

Rev. 4

0.5/20 × 153000/5 ~ 750
5/20 × 153000/7.5 ~ 5,100
2/20 × 153000/12 ~ 1,300
3/20 × 153000/25 ~ 900
5/20 × 153000/40 ~ 950
4.5/20 × 153000/60 ~ 600

Max total ~ 9,600
Min total ~ 9,600

Rev. 3 (Block 8 density map, Rev. 3)

1.1/20 × 153000/2.5 ~ 3,400
1/5 × 153000/7.5 ~ 4,100
1/20 × 153000/12 ~ 600
1/5 × 153000/25 ~ 1,000
1/4 × 153000/40 ~ 1,000
4.9/20 × 153000/60 ~ 600

Max total ~ 10,700
Min total ~ 10,700

Rev. 2 (Block 8 density map, Rev. 2)
2 × 2.5 + 4 × 3.3 + 3.5 × 0.25 – (2.5 × 2)/2 – (1 × 2.5)/2 = 5 + 13.2 + 0.88 – 2.5 – 1.25 = 15.3 × 100² ~ 153,000 sqft

1/7 × 153000/5 ~ 4,400
2.5/7 × 153000/7.5 ~ 7,300
0.5/21 × 153000/12 ~ 300
2/21 × 153000/25 ~ 1,000
4/21 × 153000/40 ~ 700
4/21 × 153000/60 ~ 500

Max total ~ 14,200

1/7 × 153000/5 ~ 4,400
2/7 × 153000/7.5 ~ 5,900
1/21 × 153000/12 ~ 600
1/7 × 153000/25 ~ 900
5/21 × 153000/40 ~ 900
3/21 × 153000/60 ~ 400

Min total ~ 13,100

Rev. 1
2 × 2.5 + 4 × 3.3 – (2.5 × 2)/2 – (1 × 2.5)/2 = 5 + 13.2 – 2.5 – 1.25 = 14.45 × 100² ~ 145,000 sqft

2/5 × 145000/5 ~ 11,600
1/5 × 145000/25 ~ 1,200
2/5 × 145000/40 ~ 1,500

Max total ~ 14,300

3/10 × 145000/5 ~ 8,700
1/10 × 145000/12 ~ 1,200
3/10 × 145000/25 ~ 1,800
3/10 × 145000/40 ~ 1,100

Min total ~ 12,800

Original
2 × 2.5 + 4 × 3.3 – (2.5 × 2)/2 – (1 × 2.5)/2 = 5 + 13.2 – 2.5 – 1.25 = 14.45 × 100² ~ 145,000 sqft

2/3 × 145000/5 ~ 20,000
1/6 × 145000/7.5 ~ 3,300
1/6 × 145000/12 ~ 2,000

Max total ~ 26,000

1/2 × 145000/5 ~ 14,500
1/4 × 145000/12 ~ 3,000
1/4 × 145000/25 ~ 1,450

Min total ~ 19,000

» A view facing the Capitol Hill from the Peace Circle — low angle (September 12, 2009 at 2.01pm EDT)

» » Crowd around the Peace Circle — notice that the East Capitol Circle and 1st St NW are left open by the police, not sure if the parking lot on Pennsylvania Ave NW is populated. The juncture area behind the barricades on the foreground (not across the street) was at some point populated (September 12, 2009 at 2.12pm EDT)

» A view at the cross section of East Capitol Circle and Peace Circle block (September 12, 2009 at 1.38pm EDT)

» Facing the western building of Capitol Hill taken from the Peace Circle — crowd density is high (September 12, 2009 at 1.38pm EDT)

» » » A line stretched from the circumference of Peace Circle facing the 1st St. — it appears that the area is highly congestive due to mobility of the crowd to move in and out of the rally

» Facing the 3rd St. and Pennsylvania Ave. in the area between the west and front lawn — people who decided to stand on neither of the lawns (September 12, 2009 at 10.58am PDT)

» Crowd behind the barricades on the Peace Circle and Pennsylvania Ave. parking lot (September 12, 2009 at 1.00pm PDT)

» » The first few minutes of this video captures the crowd density in this area as the rally was dwindling down. The story goes that somehow this guy begins accusing a couple of African-American kids who were selling “Don’t Thread On Me” accoutrement as ACORN operatives making “profit” (how un-Capitalist of them) among the crowd! Then he pursues to loudly “expose” them while calling the kid a “boy” (most certainly a poor choice of word but I don’t suppose he was born in the post-racial Utopian era either). He is basically acting all thuggish while dragging his Asian wife when apparently no one is taking a heed to the situation until a few cops quietly escort the family as they walked away from the rally. He is literally out of breath once he drives the musketeers away

» At 1:15 – Peace Circle and Pennsylvania Ave. parking lot — the video is too short to make a conclusive decision regarding the density of the crowd

» Walking around the Peace Circle — much more laxed and not entirely jammed at this juncture

» » Taken around 1:15 PM, at 3:12 of clip, you can see people gathering in Peace Circle behind the barricades — note that there aren’t as many density packed people as I had initially assumed. However, at 4:27, you can see that a more people congregated at the back rows but then again, Pennsylvania Ave. parking lot was used as an entry and exit point to the rally. Nevertheless, the crowd size and density on the lot is noticeable but can’t tell how far back it goes

» » » A closeup photo of Peace Circle with people behind the barricades – notice the portable potties on the edge of the green space between the 1st St. and Constitution Ave.. The front rows are not as densely as one would hope and if you look closely at the areas in the back, you’ll notice that there is much crowd disparity but from the timestamps, I would conjecture that the rally hadn’t been culminated at the Capitol Hill; either that or the timestamps is inaccurate (September 12, 2009 at 11.26am EDT)

» » A guy with a “Public Option Now” banner crosses the street on “northern” East Capitol Circle at 3:19 while he’s being escorted by hundreds of attendees an eventually a dozen cops — at 3:56 he reached the 1st St.. 4:39, block (8) comes into the view and if you can freeze the video at various points, you’ll notice that it is empty beyond the pathway going from the Circle to Constitution Ave. and behind a row of portable potties. The guy is being encountered by 100’s of Tea Party members.

» » A continuation of the event described above where the “Public Option” fella standing on the edge of the block (8) facing the 1st St. — at 0:55 you could almost take a pick at the area. Not much crowd, as a matter of fact empty. Also note that the majority of crowd on the 1st St. was drawn by his parade and were actually situated there

» » I cannot figure out where this one is taken, near the Peace Circle? (September 11, 2009 at 10.10pm CDT )

(9) Pennsylvania Ave. Parking Lot

A parking lot that sits on Pennsylvania Ave and is located to the west of the Reflecting Pool. Rows of portable potties were situated on the side of the parking lot along side of vehicles. The majority of projection of this block was surmised from other areas and also the fact that it was used as sort of a gateway for the attendees to go in and out of the rally.

Rev. 2
5/6 × 4.85 = 4 × 100² ~ 40,000 sqft

3/5 × 40000/7.5 ~ 3,200
1.5/5 × 40000/12 ~ 1,000
1/10 × 40000/35 ~ 100

Max total ~ 4,300

3/5 × 40000/7.5 ~ 3,200
1/5 × 40000/12 ~ 700
1/5 × 40000/35 ~ 200

Min total ~ 4,100

Rev. 1
5/6 × 4.85 = 4 × 100² ~ 40,000 sqft

2/5 × 40000/5 ~ 3,200
1/5 × 40000/7.5 ~ 1,100
1/10 × 40000/12 ~ 350
1/10 × 40000/25 ~ 160

Max total ~ 4,800

1/5 × 40000/5 ~ 1,600
2/5 × 40000/12 ~ 1,400
2/5 × 40000/25 ~ 650

Min total ~ 3,700

Original
3.85 × 5/6 = 3.2 × 100² ~ 32,000 sqft

Max total 32000/7.5 ~ 4,300

1/2 × 32000/7.5 ~ 2,100
1/4 × 32000/12 ~ 660
1/4 × 32000/25 ~ 320

Min total ~ 3,100

» » Crowd at the west side of the Reflecting Pool behind the Peace Circle statue — not the best still of the area but notice the portable potties on the parking space (September 12, 2009 at 1.30pm EDT)

» Walking along the Pennsylvania Ave. parking lot towards the 3rd St. and Constitution Ave. after 2:35

» Taken somewhere after portable potties on the Pennsylvania Ave. parking lot facing the Reflecting Pool — high congestive area (September 11, 2009 at 10.21pm CDT )

» 8:12 – on the Pennsylvania Ave. parking lot walking toward the western edge of the Reflecting Pool – note that almost everyone is using this area for moving in and out of the rally

(10) Reflecting Pool Margin

This is an area designated to the edge of the Capitol Reflecting Pool where usually either one person is sitting or/and having two or more people sitting across the attendee. A distance between this line and the perimeter of the pool was used by the crowd to move around therefore it was left out of the equation due to the fact no dynamic flow of crowd was used in any of the calculations — the golden rule, remember? Nonetheless, at the end, I added 15,000 (initially 5,000, then 10,000) to the final tally to make up for this mobile segment of demonstrators. The entire section has been ticked by the “unknown density” color because the density does not need to be applied.

19 × 0.04 × 100² ~ 7,500 sqft

Max total 7500/4 ~ 2,000
Min total 7500/6 ~ 1,250

» Facing the Constitution Ave., Capitol Reflecting Pool and Grant Memorial (September 12, 2009 at 11.48am EDT)

» Facing the Constitution Ave. and Capitol Reflecting Pool (September 12, 2009 at 11.48am EDT)

» Facing the Capitol, south of the Capitol Reflecting Pool (September 12, 2009 at 11.49am EDT)

» South side of the Reflecting Pool to the east facing the Capitol Hill (September 12, 2009 at 2.57pm PDT)

» South side of the Reflecting Pool facing toward the Constitution Ave. (September 12, 2009 at 2.57pm PDT)

» Front of the Reflecting Pool — either early arrivals while the remaining are still marching on the Pennsylvania Ave. or the timestamps is inaccurate (lunch time) (September 12, 2009 at 10.00am CDT)

» Facing the Maryland Ave. and Independence Ave on the western edge of the Reflecting Pool (September 12, 2009 at 1.33pm EDT)

» Front of the Reflecting Pool facing toward Constitution Ave. (September 12, 2009 at 1.32pm EDT)

» Facing the Independence Ave. taken from the western edge of the Reflecting Pool (September 12, 2009 at 1.47pm EDT)

» View of the south end of the Reflecting Pool and Washington Monument

» Crowd at the west side of the Reflecting Pool behind the Peace Circle statue — notice the portable potties on the parking lot (September 12, 2009 at 1.30pm EDT)

» A packed line behind the Reflecting Pool from eastern and western corner of the pool, respectively (September 15, 2009 at 9.21am PDT )

» A video taken from the southern edge of the Reflecting Pool at 0:26

» A video taken from the Western edge of the Reflecting Pool close to the East Capitol Circle – a steady line of people sitting by the pool

» Shot from the lower corner of the Reflecting Pool close to the East Capitol Circle (September 12, 2009 at 11.28am EDT)

(11) Reflecting Pool Perimeter

This is a block that encompasses areas surrounding the pool but not the edges.

Rev. 2
9 × 5/6 + 2 × (3 × 1/6) = 6.7 + 1 = 7.7 × 100² ~ 77,000 sqft

9/10 × 77000/7.5 ~ 9,200
1/10 × 77000/12 ~ 600

Max total ~ 9,800

8.5/10 × 77000/7.5 ~ 8,700
1.5/10 × 77000/12 ~ 950

Min total ~ 9,600

0.7 × 8 + 3 × 0.17 + 4 × 0.12 = 5.6 + 0.5 + 0.5 = 7 × 100² ~ 70,000 sqft

Rev. 1
7/10 × 70000/5 ~ 9,800
2/10 × 70000/7.5 ~ 1,900
1/10 × 70000/25 ~ 300

Max total ~ 12,000

3/5 × 70000/5 ~ 8,400
1/5 × 70000/12 ~ 1,200
1/5 × 70000/25 ~ 600

Min total ~ 10,200

Original
3/5 × 70000/5 ~ 8,400
1/10 × 70000/7.5 ~ 950
1/10 × 70000/25 ~ 300

Max total ~ 10,000

2/5 × 70000/5 ~ 5,600
2/5 × 70000/12 ~ 2,300
1/5 × 70000/25 ~ 560

Min total ~ 8,500

» Around the Reflecting Pool facing the Constitution Ave. (September 12, 2009 at 1.25pm EDT)

» On the edge of the Pennsylvania Ave. parking lot facing the Constitution Ave. and Louisiana Ave. — obviously since the spot is at the cross section of heavily congested area, it’s expected to be more dense (September 12, 2009 at 1.34pm EDT)

» West side of the Reflecting Pool facing the dome (September 12, 2009 at 1.32pm EDT)

» » Crowd behind the Reflecting Pool facing the Constitution Ave. — excellent shot at the height of relative density (September 12, 2009 at 1.27pm EDT)

» View of the south end of the Reflecting Pool and Washington Monument

» A relatively mixed line behind the Reflecting Pool and more (September 15, 2009 at 9.21am PDT )

» Maryland parking space and east edge of the Reflecting Pool (August 12, 2009 at 12.45pm PDT )

» Facing the Constitution Ave., Reflecting Pool and Grant Memorial — even though the perimeter was not entirely captured with this image (September 12, 2009 at 11.48am EDT)

» » A captured video of the Reflecting Pool perimeter at 4:49 — not as crowded as earlier on.
» 6:16, the eastern perimeter of the pool, again not much crowded.
» 6:30 – lower eastern edge of the Reflecting Pool, facing to Grant Memorial, practically empty. This must have been at the end of the rally

» A video taken from the southern edge of the Reflecting Pool perimeter at 0:36 — note that the majority of people in this area had moved out

» A clip taken on the edge of the Reflecting Pool perimeter at 2:59 — decent crowd density however at 3:37 you notice that the 3rd St. lawn is barely populated

» A wide view of the Reflecting Pool perimeter at 2:14 taken from the Pennsylvania Ave. parking lot

» » A capture from the back of the Reflecting Pool and partially off of 3rd St. block at 3:01. At this juncture, the crowdedness at the perimeter is noticeable

» » Facing the back of the Reflecting Pool at the eastern corner of the pool — towards the end of the rally (September 12, 2009 at 2.25pm EDT – corrected by one hour, 3.25 pm EDT)

» » Back rows of the people on the Reflecting Pool perimeter facing the Pennsylvania Ave. parking lot — close net of seated and standing crowd (September 12, 2009 at 9.47am CDT )

» Another shot from the back rows of the people on the Reflecting Pool perimeter facing the doom (September 12, 2009 at 11.58am EDT )

» A shot taken from the eastern corner of the 3rd St. — notice the crowd congregation on this particular pocket but I am assuming the timestamps must be off by a few hours (September 12, 2009 at 11.57am EDT)

» » Crowd on the Reflecting Pool perimeter facing the Constitution Ave. — the timestamps indicates that it was shot at noon when the rally was about to begin and the most crowded time frame. If that’s true, my highlight map accurately color coded for the amount of populated area that is being shown in this still (September 12, 2009 at 11.58am EDT)

» Facing the US Botanic Garden, this picture was taken at the western area of 3rd St. block and Reflecting Pool perimeter (September 12, 2009 at 11.57am EDT)

» A view from the eastern edge of the Reflecting Pool adjacent to Maryland Ave. parking lot (September 12, 2009 at 11.40am CDT)

(12) 3rd St.

A distance between the perimeter of Reflecting Pool and the 3rd St. which is by itself a large area although, according to several photos, was not used extensively by the crowd (only sporadic groups with folding chairs setup shop there). Notice that the low number on this block is due to the fact the majority of people at the height of the rally were situated closer to the Capitol so they can observe the podium — visibility of the podium at this elevation is almost non-existence. Later on in the day, some attendees shifted to this block.

Many people assume that just because later in a day, a group of attendees migrated to the back areas such as the one between the Reflecting Pool and 3rd St., it constitutes a “new” increase in density in such vicinities — this is a faulty assumption. Remember, the count was set when the density of all the blocks had to be at the highest and at that very time frame, areas on the back were much lighter in attaining participants (most people were huddled at the front)

Rev. 2
(10.1 + “8”) × 1.5/2= 13.6 × 100² ~ 136,000 sqft

1/6 × 136000/12 ~ 1,900
1/3 × 136000/40 ~ 1,200
1/2 × 136000/60 ~ 1,100

Max total ~ 4,200

1/7 × 136000/12 ~ 1,600
2.5/7 × 136000/40 ~ 1,200
3.5/7 × 136000/60 ~ 1,100

Min total ~ 3,900

(10 + 8.5) × 1.8/2= 16.6 × 100² ~ 166,000 sqft

Rev. 1
1/10 × 166000/5 ~ 3,300
8/10 × 166000/40 ~ 3,300
1/10 × 166000/60 ~ 300

Max total ~ 6,900

1/10 × 166000/12 ~ 1,400
7/10 × 166000/40 ~ 3,000
1/5 × 166000/60 ~ 550

Min total ~ 5,000

Original
Max total 166000/40 ~ 4,200
Min total 166000/60 ~ 2,800

» Taken from the area between the back of the Reflecting Pool and 3rd St. — due to an erratic timestamp, it is hard to say whether this was a start of the rally or after lunch period when returning people situating themselves on the 3rd St. block (September 12, 2009 at 11.38am EDT)

» » Between the Reflecting Pool and 3rd St. (September 12, 2009 at 3.00pm PDT)

» A whole lot of people sitting close to 3rd St. — crowd that were coming back from the departure. Not an appropriate photo to determine the density (September 12, 2009 at 1.27pm EDT)

» » Crowd close to 3rd St facing the Maryland Ave and Independence Ave. — taken near the end of the rally (September 12, 2009 at 1.26pm EDT )

» On the eastern edge of the 3rd St. — a lot of people streamlining in and out of the rally hence the reason for its crowdedness (August 12, 2009 at 2.04pm PDT )

» Back of the Reflecting Pool all the way to the 3rd St. — this might be a time where the “march” was being culminated to the Capitol Hill area (September 12, 2009 at 10.11am EDT)

» » A video at 2:27 capturing the vicinity — the time of capture is unknown

» A video at 1:44, 1:52, 2:29 shows a dispersed crowd but justifiable for several thousands

» Walking across the 3rd St. onto the block at 1:22 (right smack through the middle of the enclave)
» 2:22 shows a more concentrated crowd that I have seen in photos but perhaps on a congested crossing zone, this was to be expected. Note that as the rally was wrapping up, many people began dispersing to the back areas, hence the reason for this particular crowdedness. Obviously, the majority of these people were situated on different blocks when the speakers delivered their notes.
» 3:32/3:55 show a more dispersed crowd as we have seen in various photos.
» 4:21 – a more inclined toward the western side of the 3rd St. area

» » A video taken from the 3rd St. all the way walking to the back of the Reflecting Pool area — it was recorded after the clip shared above and as you can see, the crowd density has increased dramatically. These are the attendees who had gone to luncheon and rather going back on the front lawns, they decided to congregate in a more space-friendly areas, i.e. 3rd St.. This is a clear case of rearrangement

» A short-lived moment taken from 3rd St. at 3:11 facing the National Mall — the density on the perimeter is moderately high but a few rows on the 3rd St. field also “appears” to contain a bit more densely packed crowd. However, if you watch the remaining of the clip, you’ll notice that half of the east and west lawns are half empty which signals the end of the rally therefore I will not consider the density captured on this video in the final estimation

» » A view of the middle of the 3rd St. block — this probably was near the end of the rally where people congregated at the back areas as they came back from lunch (September 12, 2009 at 11.57am EDT)

(13) 3rd St. and Constitution Ave.

A block similar to 3rd St. where there weren’t many concentrated crowd convening.

(1 + 2.5) × 4.5/2 = 7.8 × 100² ~ 78,000 sqft

Rev. 2

1/3 × 78000/40 ~ 650
2/3 × 78000/60 ~ 900

Max total ~ 1,550

1/4 × 78000/40 ~ 500
3/4 × 78000/60 ~ 950

Min total ~ 1,450

Original

Max total 78000/40 ~ 2,000
Min total 78000/60 ~ 1,300

» » Sporadic sit-ins at 4:57 in this particular area

Total space Rev. 3 ~ 1,033,000 sqft
Total space Rev. 2 ~ 1,030,000 sqft
Total space Rev. 1 ~ 1,010,000 sqft

Rev. 4
Max total crowd ~ 117,300 but after correction, 118,300
Min total crowd ~ 113,800

Rev. 3
Max total crowd ~ 127,500 but after correction, 121,000
Min total crowd ~ 122,000 but after correction, 115,700

Rev. 2
Max total crowd ~ 108,000
Min total crowd ~ 101,000

Rev. 1
Max total crowd ~ 126,000 but after correction, 121,000
Min total crowd ~ 110,000 but after correction, 105,000

Original
Max total crowd ~ 155,000 but after correction, 152,000
Min total crowd ~ 130,000 but after correction, 127,000

However, assuming roughly 10%-15% or 15,000/10,000 max/min (revised from 5,000 for the “Original” estimation, 10,000 for “Rev. 1” estimate, 15,000 in “Rev. 2” for both min/max) of people were streamlining in and out of the rally at a given time (either for food, other necessities, or just scattered around in the areas that were not deemed populated in the highlighted map), the final tally would rise up to:

Rev. 4
Max total crowd ~ 132,000 but after correction, 133,000
Min total crowd ~ 124,000

Rev. 3
Max total crowd ~ 142,500 but after correction, 136,000
Min total crowd ~ 132,000 but after correction, 126,000

Rev. 2
Max total crowd ~ 123,000
Min total crowd ~ 116,000

Rev. 1
Max total crowd ~ 136,000 but after correction, 133,000
Min total crowd ~ 120,000 but after correction, 117,000

Original
Max total crowd ~ 160,000 but after correction, 157,000
Min total crowd ~ 135,000 but after correction, 132,000

There you have it. Prior to all this, my initial anecdotal estimate was somewhere between 90,000 and 110,000, and concurrently, the original evaluated figures came 50% on top. However, after the first revision, the numbers did indeed take a 15% ebb and continued its descend in Rev. 2 until higher density variables were added to the equation [in Rev. 3]. Of course this is assuming my calculation and certain inferences and conjecture of various parameters are accurate.

The Myth of the 2 Million Attendees

Recently, it has brought to my attention that certain pro-Tea Party crowd are adamantly promulgating an erroneous figures that either dubiously attained or flagrantly concocted. Let me be blatantly clear about this: the veracity of such claim not only defies rationality of making a silk purse out of a sow’s ears but only confers to its impossibility. Geographically speaking, the entire area encompassing a line drawn parallel to the facade of the Capitol Hill, connecting Constitution Ave. to Independence Ave., enshrouding the area all the way to the 3rd St., would register somewhere around (13 × 14 × 100² ~) 1,820,000 sqft. Even if you manage to cram every single person on top of each other (3.5 sqft/person, an extreme condition only seen on first few crushing rows of a sardined concert), the total crowd would boil down to 520,000. This simple calculation immediately shatters a false presumption that there were millions of attendees or even 800,000 as it has been reported by the official organizers — not only such assertion is patently false and egregious in its nature, but rather entirely unrealistic and improbable.

Moreover, a particularly absurd calculation that I just discussed in the previous paragraph does not exclude areas such as the Reflecting Pool (180,000 sqft), 1st St.-Independence Ave. (130,000 sqft), the US Botanic Garden enclave between 1st St. and 3rd St. (260,000 sqft), tail end of Pennsylvania Ave. and Maryland Ave. parking lots (40,000-50,000 sqft), East Capitol Circle and Constitution Ave, including the 1st Ave and vicinity (90,000 sqft), and other limited pathways such as the ones passing through the Peace and Garfield Circles all the way to the Capitol steps (10,000 sqft) which ultimately brings the total “occupied” (not to be confused with “occupiable”) area to 1,100,000 sqft (1,820,000 – 720,000) — a comparable figure to the total space I come up with. Second, another faulty assumption in our 520,000 figure is that all the remaining populated areas have the same density which is a misleading premise to begin with; all to the contrary, the evidence (photos and videos) attests to that fact. Even if you forgo this rationality and assume the density of 3.5 sqft for the “entire” populated blocks (1,100,000 sqft), that would leave us with around 315,000 attendees which is no where around 7-figure being so shamelessly touted in the echo chambers of gullibility.

It has become apparent that such mis-perception stems from either lack of intellectual rectitude, political zeal (read: cultist mentality), or a clarion of acumen to do a rudimentary research before jumping on a bandwagon fallacy. Disproving an absurdity of this magnitude should not require a considerable effort if one wishes to apply himself accordingly. Examining in contrast of the recent events (i.e. “We Are One” Inauguration Concert with ~500,000 attendees in yellow or Obama’s Presidential Inauguration ~1,000,000 +/- in blue on the highlighted map below), the area occupied by 9/12 Tea Party rally (colored in red with overlapping areas of Obama’s inauguration in purple) in comparison with presidential inauguration should not by any cogent measurement allow anyone to come up with a “2 million” conclusion. I am not going to indulge certain people’s reasoning process by delving into psychological inclination of those who claim otherwise because I would like to keep the focus on examination of facts and facts only, so we leave it there.

Below you can find the colored map for the discussed paragraph (click for the [1st revision] larger resolution 2074 × 545, 760 KB below — I’m totally aware that the map is not entirely accurate and created just to provide an overall contrast between the different events. After the 2nd revision, I readjusted the image to reflect a more accurate coverage of the area. You can find the original highlighted map and 1st revision here).

Let us make a scene-by-scene comparison of both presidential inauguration and 9/12 Tea Party protest. Note that some of the images have enhanced (i.e. brightness, contrast, etc.) or/and cropped (for resolution compatibility). The first side-by-side pictures are roughly taken on the terrace level of Capitol Hill. As you can see, at the 9/12 Tea Party rally, the National Mall was entirely empty (up to 3rd St.) or had been reserved for other events (i.e. Black Family Reunion). Yet on the presidential inauguration day, the entire Mall was covered with the participants from the Grant Memorial statues to the back of the Reflecting Pool (another one take from the top of the Washington Monument), all the way to the Washington Monument itself. You can view the podium and the Capitol steps along with the picture of ticket area on the front lawn here. If you wish to see a panoramic view of the inauguration podium where you can zoom in on everyone’s face click here (make sure to zoom all the way to the right where the “Grant Memorial” and crowd on the National Mall are visible) ^[3].

Now, take a look at a side-by-side contrast between the National Mall field from both events; the one taken on the presidential inauguration day (the one on the top, somewhere after 12th St., Smithsonian tower is visible on the right hand side) which clearly illustrates the sheer number of attendees with the Tea Party’s (somewhere after 7th St. if you wish to verify note that the timestamps was corrected by an hour to 3:03pm EDT) undisputedly portrays an uninhibited field (for another perspective, you can view a picture taken closer to the Capitol Hill around south of the IMAX Theater on the National Mall and even closer and closer). This should leave no doubt that there was in no way the 9/12 event had an equivalent amount of crowd participating in the protest when the presidential inauguration had merely an estimation of around 1 million. Contrarians are delusional if they think otherwise; again, this is not about one’s political affiliation but rather an honest examination of fact vs. fiction ^[3].

NOTE: I am certainly cognizant of a fact that the maps and the numbers are not entirely flawless and do contain errors, along perhaps some of the calculations or conjectures of assumed parameters. Yes, there are probably tons of grammatical and spelling errors peppered all over the post but I hope you’ll find it in your kind hearts to extend me your clemency. If you also know of a photo set or a video clip that offers a better view from an area that I have missed, please do share it with us. At the end, I would like to invite everyone to do note such omissions and oversights in a civil manner backed with reference and verifiable fact. If such disparity or shortcoming was found, I will surely include them in the “update” sections throughout the post. If somebody can provide me the following research paper titled, “Estimation of Crowd Density Based on Wavelet and Support Vector Machine“, it would be greatly appreciated.

Update (1)

Block 1: An area closer to the Capitol building was slightly trimmed to reflect the exact boundaries for this region. Area, max, and min were recalculated — all decreased
Block 2: After reviewing several more photos and clips, max and min were recalculated — both decreased by ~40%
Block 3: The area was readjusted and max/min reevaluated — all decreased
Block 6: The area was redrawn to adequately touches certain corners; area, max, and min were recalculated — all slightly increased
Block 7: The west lawn was redrawn on the map, area, max, and min were reevaluated — all decreased
Block 8: The crowd density for this block came under question after reviewing multiple clips — all decreased
Block 9: The area was increased by 2/5 as it was being used as a gateway to the rally for the duration of the protest; the area, max, and min were recalculated — all increased
Block 11: It was brought to my attention that the back of the Reflecting Pool was more crowded that it had been assessed; max and min were reevaluated — both increased
Block 12: Same fate as block 11 except that max and min were slightly bumped — both slightly increased

Update (2)

A color coded density map along with resource assignment to one or more density were introduced for better understanding of how each block’s crowd estimate was calculated. Each area was designated appropriate boundaries for various densities extrapolated from multiple resources (i.e. images and videos). All the resources were re-examined and duplicates, omissions, and wrongly attributed items were deleted or reassigned to an appropriate block. The changes as follow:

Block 1: Color coded density map and resources were added. Max and min were recalculated — both decreased
Block 2: Color coded density map and resources were added. Max, min, and the area were readjusted and recalculated — all increased
Block 3: Color coded density map and resources were added. Max and min were recalculated — both decreased
Block 4: Boundaries were adjusted and the only the area was recalculated — it increased
Block 5: Boundaries were readjusted, color coded density map and resources were assigned. Max, min, and area were recalculated — area was expanded but Max/Min decreased
Block 6: Color coded density map and resources were added. Max and min were recalculated — both decreased
Block 7: Color coded density map and resources were added. Max and min were recalculated — both increased
Block 8: Boundaries were redrawn, color coded density map and resources were added. Max, min, and area were recalculated — area was expanded, Max slightly decreased but Min increased
Block 9: Color coded density map and resources were added. Max and min were recalculated — Max decreased but Min increased
Block 11: Color coded density map and resources were added. Max, min and area were recalculated — area was expanded, Max and Min both decreased
Block 12: Color coded density map and resources were added. Max, min and area were recalculated — all decreased
Block 13: Color coded density map and resources were added. Max and min were recalculated — Max decreased but Min increased

Update (3)

A new density parameter was added to the list, 2.5 sqft/person which is justifiable when one considers the crowdedness of certain enclaves. I even go as far as calling an exclusion of such density a major mistake in my initial work which is a wrong I’d be gladly make right. In the process, all the necessary images and videos were “ticked” with the designated Olive Darb color and the any density map, including the overall plot, that required change in density waves was adjusted accordingly (you still can view the old block-specific density maps in Rev. 2 sections of each block). A Photoshop version of density map (~10 MB) was offered but remember, once it’s downloaded, the extension (file format) must be changed to “.psd” as I was only able to upload in “.ppt” format.

Block 1: Color coded density map was altered and 2.5 sqft enclosure was added. Max and min were recalculated — both increased
Block 2: Color coded density map was altered and 2.5 sqft enclosure was added. Max and min were recalculated — both increased
Block 5: Color coded density map was altered and 2.5 sqft enclosure was added. Max, min, and area were recalculated — all increased (max/min by 50%)
Block 6: Color coded density map was altered and 2.5 sqft enclosure was added. Max and min were recalculated — both increased
Block 7: Color coded density map was altered and 2.5 sqft enclosure was added. Max and min were recalculated — both increased
Block 8: Color coded density map was altered and 2.5 sqft enclosure was added. Max and min recalculated — both decreased (max/min by 40%)

Update (4)

Blocks (2), (6), and (8) density maps were redrawn and the figures were recalculated to reflect the readjustments.

Block 2: Color coded density map was altered. Max and min were recalculated — both decreased
Block 6: Color coded density map was altered. Max and min were recalculated — max decreased but min increased
Block 8: Color coded density map was altered and 2.5 sqft was completely removed. Max and min recalculated — both decreased

[1] Appended on September 23, 2009
[2] Appended on September 27, 2009
[3] Appended on September 28, 2009
[4] Appended on October 2, 2009
[5] Appended on October 18, 2009